- Kumar Moses
It is a topic no one likes to discuss. Even the government seems not to worry about it or at least pretend it is not a thing to worry about. People avoid talking about it fearing they might hurt the feelings of peaceful Muslims. It is a fact Muslims have been the most peaceful ethnic community in Sri Lanka despite many provocations. Things must remain so in future as well. However, it is foolhardy to think Islamic terror that is rampant in the region, would not enter Sri Lanka. Actually, it is already active in Sri Lanka. A well planned military approach is needed to be prepared to face this eventuality. The question is not if but when.
Provincial, National, Regional and Global Events
A number of violent acts were reported from Eastern Sri Lanka committed by armed Islamic rebel groups. Razeek Group was one of them and even a Jihadi movement is said to exist in the East. Clashes between Sunni and growing Shiite sections turned violent a few years ago. In 2001, senior Muslim politician Rauf Hakeem declared a Muslim administrative unit in the East, which sparked a controversy, and he was sacked from his ministerial post. In addition, Islamic extremism openly existent in parts of the East. A good example is Kalmunai where Sharia Law is unofficially applied. These events raise eyebrows of any military analyst. The US government takes these very seriously. That is why the largest proportion of USAID development funding to Lanka is channelled to the East. It is expected that development will defuse extremism.
Nationally there have not been any significant violent acts by Muslim groups so far.
However, the regional picture is very bleak. Afghanistan and Pakistan is pretty badly affected by Islamic terrorism. Even both the United States and Soviet Union (world superpowers) couldn’t contain them. Within Pakistan a large number of Islamic terror groups operate. They are world famous for exporting terror. UK is critically concerned about Pakistan exporting radical Islam and terror to the UK. India repeatedly suffer from Islamic terror attacks that are of enormous scale. Two examples are the 2006 Mumbai train bombings and 2008 Mumbai bombings. A number of Islamic terror groups are active throughout India. Bangladesh is also affected.
Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and now Singapore have Islamic terror activities/suspects. On the other extreme Somalia and the Middle East are heavily afflicted by Islamic terror.
In short, the entire region is active with dozens of Islamic terror groups and it is a matter of time their attention is drawn to Sri Lanka.
Needless to say Islamic terror is the biggest global security threat. It has been recognized by USA, Russia, China, UK and France – essentially all the superpowers. From Manila to New York and Johannesburg to Oslo, the world keeps an eye on Islamic fundamentalism and terror.
Sri Lankan defence authorities must appreciate these telltale signs before this threat reaches our island nation in nasty proportions.
Gravity of the Threat
The likelihood of the threat was discussed above. Now let us turn to the gravity of the threat. If there is anything that comes closer to Tamil terror, it is global Islamic terror. They too use suicide bombers and human shields. Their network is as complex as the Tamil terror network. Their financiers are richer than Tamil terror financiers. Islamic terror is spreading worldwide and no nation has been able to stop it. Even US troops were defeated in Somalia, Yemen, Iraq and now in Afghanistan by Islamic terror groups. All these mean one thing – Islamic terror will be as nasty as Tamil terror if not worse.
Indonesia is world’s largest Islamic nation. Next come Pakistan, India and Bangladesh in that order. All these nations are Sri Lanka’s neighbours, which means easy logistical support for a Sri Lankan Islamic terror group. But that is only half the story. Eastern Sri Lanka can become the transit hub of Indonesian and Pakistani terror groups. Namely, Jamah Islamia and Al Qaeda can coordinate in Eastern Sri Lanka. From the East to Indonesia there is unrestricted sea access. This sea stretch is increasingly worrying to Singapore and as a result, its patrols have increased within its small territorial waters. LTTE already had a well established weapons smuggling network in Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia which proves how easy it is to establish a clandestine link.
A large number of Pakistanis visit Sri Lanka. A considerable number of them deal in illegal goods including drugs. It is easy to turn the link into a weapons and ideology transfer link.
In addition to Islamic terror attacks directly on purely Sri Lankan interests, there would be attacks on westerners and western interests in Sri Lanka. Good examples are Bali 2002 and Jakarta 2004.
National defence policymakers must take these facts into account.
Strategic Implications and Handling the Threat
Unlike countering Tamil terror, countering Islamic terror has wide global support. It is a fact that human rights considerations don’t interfere much with fighting Islamic terror. All global superpowers and regional powers are willing to support Sri Lanka to any extent in annihilating Islamic terror. These avenues must be exploited.
However, managing the threat to counter connected threats is also required from a strategic point of view.
Tamil Elam movement is not dead still. It is very active internationally and even nationally. All Tamil political parties still carry out the Tamil Elam campaign, openly. They demand merging Tamil-only North with multiethnic East. India and USA openly support this move not necessarily to create Tamil Elam but to have a say in Sri Lanka. There should be local anti-merger movements in the East for it to be kept away from merging with the North. When the East was merged with the North, Sri Lanka Muslim Congress emerged as the premier Muslim political force in the East. It was a good response to the evil act of merger.
Confrontational moves by Tamil separatists backed by India/US should be matched by a powerful local anti-merger lobby. Islamic groups, including armed rebel groups would become part of this lobby. In other words, a confrontation must be ensured between Tamil separatists and Islamic rebel groups. This is nothing new to Sri Lanka. It happened in 1991 after the Black August Tamil attack on a mosque on a Friday in the East killing 153 Muslims. Muslim rebel groups were armed by the government with AK-47s and RPGs to counter the Tamil Elamist threat.
Another war in Sri Lanka will be looked at with disgust by the international community, especially the human rights lobby. For them it will be another war by Sri Lanka against the minorities. This will be a huge problem in countering the threat. A managed confrontation between Tamil separatist elements and Islamic terror elements is the best way to overcome this problem. It should happen until adequate state sponsored ethnic integration by way of colonization takes place in the North to frustrate the Tamil Elam movement. Then the Tamil Elam movement will be dormant allowing Sri Lanka a freehand in tackling Islamic terror.
India and USA are fully aware of raging Islamic extremism in Eastern Sri Lanka. While the USA tries to douse it with USAID funded projects, they have a strategic solution to it. Their solution is to turn the entire North-East of Sri Lanka into an ‘autonomous’ territory ruled by India through Tamil Nadu. Compared to Sri Lanka, India is more equipped to handle Islamic terror. And as far as USA is concerned, Sri Lanka is not doing anything about it! Also when merged with Greater Tamil Nadu, the eastern Muslim population becomes insignificant. This is why India and USA are hell-bent on a ‘political solution’ that merges the North and the East based on an Indian solution (so that India will be in control) but that is not ruled by the LTTE. This is why India and USA allowed the annihilation of the LTTE reluctantly though, but object to Sri Lankan unitary rule over the North-East.
This was what India wanted to do with the IPKF too. India’s intentions of annexing North-East Sri Lanka unified the government and the LTTE for a moment. India’s evil plan angered the LTTE so much that it eliminated the then Indian Prime Minister.
How will this strategic Indian/US move be managed in the context of Islamic terror in the East?
The only way to manage this is by setting Tamil Nadu/Elam interests against Islamic terror interests. Such a mechanism will defeat Tamil Elamist, Tamil Nadu, Indian, US and Islamic terror interests all at once while establishing Sri Lankan national interests in the region. This is why safeguarding Tamil Elamists from Islamic terror attacks should be at the bottom of Sri Lanka’s priorities. This inevitable confrontation must be carefully managed for the betterment of Sri Lankan interests. Strategic ethnic integration schemes and the resultant ethic distribution in Trincomalee and Ampara but not in Batticaloa very much help this plan. At the same time, state sponsored ethnic integration schemes backed by colonization should take place in areas that traditionally support the Tamil Elam movement and not so much in areas of Islamic rebel activity.
This way outside interferers will have no option than to co-operate with Sri Lanka to take care of their interests in the region. Once Tamil Elam and Greater Tamil Nadu movements are adequately weakened, the Islamic terror movement can be eliminated in full with US and Indian assistance. Full diplomatic ties with Israel – a capable handler of Islamic terror – must be maintained. Besides most Arabic nations do have strong diplomatic relations with Israel and there is no reason why Sri Lanka shouldn’t.
National security and national interests must extend beyond restrictions placed by morality simply because our enemies have no morals whatsoever. Ultimately, better good will vastly surpass the few bad things along the way.
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